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ISSUE #5 · {{current_date_full}}

Zambia's Election · Russia Sanctions Bill · Brazil-Argentina Rift · Reader FAQ

Welcome back to The Global Chessboard. This issue looks at three places where domestic politics and international power meet, a closely watched election in Zambia, a new American sanctions and tariff weapon aimed at Russian oil, and a diplomatic rift opening between South America's two largest economies.

COVER STORY · ISSUE #5

Zambia Votes on Hichilema's Economic Record

Est. read time: 4 min · Africa · Elections

On August 13 Zambians voted in a presidential and general election widely seen as a referendum on President Hakainde Hichilema's handling of the economy since he took office in 2021. Roughly 8.8 million registered voters chose among 14 presidential candidates, with the Electoral Commission of Zambia expecting results by Monday and a winner needing more than half the vote to avoid a runoff. Hichilema, who steered the country through a landmark debt restructuring after its 2020 default, is favored by analysts but faces frustration over the cost of living, while first time candidate Brian Mundubile has drawn large crowds. The vote matters beyond Zambia because the copper producing nation is among the first African economies to test whether painful debt reform can be rewarded at the ballot box.

Supporters of Hichilema argue his government pulled Zambia back from financial collapse, completing a debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework, steadying the kwacha, and bringing inflation down from crisis levels. They contend that the foundations for growth, including expanded electricity supply and renewed mining investment, are now in place, and that changing course would put the recovery at risk. In this view a second term is needed to let reforms mature into jobs and lower prices rather than abandoning them halfway.

Opponents counter that macroeconomic stabilization has not reached ordinary Zambians, more than 70 percent of whom live on less than three dollars a day, and that the discipline required to repay creditors has squeezed household budgets. Rivals, including Mundubile and figures aligned with the former ruling party, accuse the government of concentrating power and failing to deliver the relief it promised in 2021. They frame the election as a chance to hold the incumbent accountable for a recovery they say exists mainly on paper.

Analysts note that incumbency, a fractured opposition, and a system requiring an outright majority favor Hichilema, but that a credible and peaceful count matters as much as the winner. Zambia has a record of competitive elections and past peaceful transfers of power, a pattern that regional observers watch closely. The outcome will also signal to creditors and other indebted African states whether reform minded governments can survive the political cost of restructuring, or whether austerity remains electorally fatal.

Sources: Al Jazeera, France 24, Reuters

ECONOMICS · SANCTIONS

The Senate Hands Trump a Tariff Weapon Against Russian Oil

Est. read time: 4 min · Sanctions · Trade

On August 7 the United States Senate voted 86 to 11 to pass the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, legislation that would let President Trump impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries that buy Russian oil and gas and up to 500 percent on goods imported from Russia itself. Trump has said he would sign the measure, which now waits for the House of Representatives when it returns from recess in September. The biggest targets are the largest buyers of Russian energy, a list led by China and India, which makes the bill as much an instrument of trade pressure as a traditional sanctions tool. Its stated purpose is to squeeze the energy revenue that funds Russia's war in Ukraine.

Backers argue that years of conventional sanctions have failed to choke off Moscow's energy income because major economies keep buying discounted Russian crude, and that only the threat of losing access to the American market will change their calculations. They cast the bill as leverage to push Russia toward serious negotiations over Ukraine and as a way to punish sanctions evasion through the so called shadow fleet of aging tankers. Broad bipartisan support, they add, signals durable resolve in Congress regardless of shifts in the executive branch.

Critics warn that 100 percent tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods would raise prices for American consumers and risk a wider trade conflict with two economies Washington needs on other fronts. Some point out that the waiver authority written into the bill lets the President dilute or delay enforcement, which could turn a tough sounding law into a bargaining chip rather than a binding constraint. Others question whether pressuring India and other partners over their energy purchases might push them closer to Beijing and Moscow instead.

Analysts observe that the bill fuses sanctions and tariff policy in a way that would give the executive unusually broad economic authority, and that its real effect depends entirely on how, and whether, the President chooses to use it. Secondary measures aimed at third countries have a mixed historical record, sometimes reshaping trade flows and sometimes merely rerouting them through intermediaries. With the House not back until September and the war grinding on, the measure functions for now as a statement of intent, its bite still to be tested in practice.

Sources: NPR, CNBC, RFE/RL

GLOBAL SOUTH · LATIN AMERICA

Brazil Downgrades Ties With Argentina Over Milei's Attacks on Lula

Est. read time: 3 min · Latin America · Diplomacy

Brazil has scaled back its diplomatic presence in Argentina after President Javier Milei repeatedly insulted his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, branding him a thief on several occasions in recent weeks. Brasilia recalled its ambassador, Julio Bitelli, in July and has since been represented in Buenos Aires only by a lower ranking charge d'affaires, saying the ambassador will not return while the attacks continue. It is the first such downgrade between the two neighbors in recent memory, and it comes as Milei, a close ally of President Trump, aligns himself with Brazil's opposition ahead of a national election in October. The friction matters because Brazil and Argentina are South America's two largest economies and the anchors of the Mercosur trade bloc.

Brasilia argues that repeated public insults from a sitting head of state cross a line ordinary diplomatic friction does not, and that recalling the ambassador is a measured response well short of severing relations. Lula's allies say Milei is deliberately importing Brazil's domestic politics into the bilateral relationship by campaigning for the opposition, and that Brazil cannot ignore a foreign leader branding its president a criminal. They frame the downgrade as a defense of national dignity rather than the start of a quarrel.

Milei's supporters cast his comments as blunt talk from an outsider who ran against the region's traditional political class, and they accuse Lula of leading a leftist bloc hostile to Argentina's free market turn. They argue that Brazil is overreacting to rhetoric and that the two economies remain tightly bound by trade no matter what their presidents say about each other. In this reading the ideological gap between the two governments, not Milei's language, is the real source of the rift.

Analysts note that Brazil and Argentina have weathered sharp ideological swings before without formal downgrades, and that the deep trade and energy links of Mercosur usually outlast personal feuds between leaders. The greater risk is functional, because strained ties can slow negotiations over tariffs, energy integration, and the bloc's long delayed trade agreement with the European Union. With elections looming in Brazil and Milei openly backing the opposition, the dispute is likely to stay personal and public at least until the Brazilian vote in October.

Sources: Washington Post, Euronews

READER FAQ

Your Questions, Answered

Each issue we answer the most pressing questions from our readers. Submit yours by replying to this email.

Q: What is the difference between sanctions and tariffs, and why are they being combined?

A: Sanctions restrict who a country's people and firms may do business with, often by freezing assets or banning transactions, while tariffs are taxes on imported goods that make them more expensive. Combining them, as the new United States bill would, lets a government punish not just the target country but any third country that keeps trading with it, by taxing that third country's exports. The approach is powerful but blunt, because part of the cost lands on the importing country's own consumers.

Q: What does it mean when a country recalls its ambassador or downgrades to a charge d'affaires?

A: Recalling an ambassador is a formal signal of displeasure that stops short of cutting ties, and leaving an embassy in the hands of a charge d'affaires means it keeps working but at a lower diplomatic rank. It reduces the level at which the two governments communicate and withholds the symbolic prestige of a full ambassador, while preserving the practical machinery of the relationship. Full severance, by contrast, would close the embassy entirely and end formal relations.

Q: Why do international observers pay so much attention to elections in smaller economies like Zambia?

A: Elections in smaller states often serve as tests of broader trends, such as whether democratic institutions hold, whether power changes hands peacefully, and whether difficult economic reforms can survive a public vote. Zambia draws particular attention because it was among the first countries to restructure its debt under a new international framework, so its result carries lessons for other indebted governments and their creditors. A credible count also reinforces regional norms in a part of the world where they are increasingly contested.

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